Indirect Estimation and Simulation Tool (IEST) Overview

To facilitate modeling of the progression of chronic disease such as diabetes so that investigators can evaluate the cost/utility of a proposed method of prevention, early diagnosis or intervention.

  • To develop and distribute user-friendly software that helps researchers model progression of a chronic disease and its complications, including the associated costs and health utilities.
  • To provide user-friendly software that can improve estimates of progression rates between stages of chronic diseases.

Clinical studies of a chronic disease, such as diabetes, may require a large population and a lengthy follow-up. However, it is possible to obtain estimates of the probabilities of transitions between stages of diseases, or complications, from studies with shorter-term follow up. Therefore, the progression of the disease and its complications can be simulated (modeled) over a long period of time without following subjects for the entire period. The goal of this project is to create a computer model that can simulate the progression of a chronic disease; we use diabetes and its associated complications as an example. Investigators can study the theoretical effect of a prevention strategy or an intervention by modifying the transition probabilities in the model to reflect the expected effect of the intervention.

Additional and updated information regarding the software and the project can be found online here.